Pain to be forced to raise?

China: Our Chief Economist, Dr Ha REVISED UP his 09 GDP to 7.6%-8%, due to
 recovering electricity production, property, auto sales, investment budgets for
 newly started projects, manufacturing PMI, & better than expected quasi-fiscal
 credit expansion (over Rmb1.3tn again for March new loan).

* CPI is expected to rally as well. The CICC comprehensive leading indicator
 stabilized after 13 months of decline, suggesting that the real economy is
 recovering.

* External environment also improved. The US's new housing starts and housing
 sales volume rose substantially along with improvements in the consumer market,
 stronger-than-expected core retail sales, as well as recoveries in the consumer
 expectations index, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index and the durable goods
 orders index. The US's CPI and PPI also began to rally. Germany saw recovery
 in the IFo and ZEW expectations indexes, plus a robust rebound in automobile
 sales. Europe's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI stabilized. All these
 suggest that the Chinese economy may rebound markedly QoQ in the 2Q.

* Recent development on G20 suggests accelerating globalization of RMB and more
 say in int'l financial system from China which bodes well for asset prices
 according to empirical experiences.

* US: we see new home started and sales numbers to recover after 3-year's of
 correction and enormous govt efforts, while property prices could keep falling
 but at a lower pace, this is similar to what's happening in China and increases
 the probability for US economy to get out of the current recession in 4Q09.